GRID RESILIENCE AND DISASTER PREPAREDNESS. CASE STUDY-NIGERIA NATIONAL GRID

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GRID RESILIENCE AND DISASTER PREPAREDNESS. CASE STUDY-NIGERIA NATIONAL GRID

Abstract

Nigeria’s national power grid remains highly vulnerable to frequent collapses, with 10 recorded incidents in 2024 alone, exacerbating economic losses and social disruptions 7. This study examines the challenges of grid resilience and disaster preparedness in Nigeria, focusing on systemic weaknesses such as obsolete infrastructure, inadequate maintenance, and lack of real-time monitoring systems like SCADA (Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition). The recurring grid failures—often triggered by frequency instability, vandalism, and extreme weather events—highlight the urgent need for proactive mitigation strategies.

Using Nigeria as a case study, this research evaluates global best practices in grid modernization, including climate-resilient infrastructure upgrades and decentralized renewable energy integration 1016. Findings reveal that strategic interventions, such as deploying FACTS (Flexible Alternating Current Transmission System) devices and spinning reserves, could enhance grid stability and increase renewable energy penetration by up to 40% 13. However, institutional barriers, including political interference in infrastructure siting and chronic underfunding, hinder progress.

The study concludes with policy recommendations: accelerated investment in smart grid technologies, adoption of predictive maintenance frameworks, and stronger public-private partnerships to bolster disaster preparedness. These measures are critical for Nigeria to achieve a resilient energy transition and mitigate the socio-economic impacts of grid failures.

Keywords: Grid resilience, Disaster preparedness, National grid collapse, Renewable energy integration, Infrastructure modernization, Nigeria.

CHAPTER ONE: INTRODUCTION

1.1 Background to the Study

Electricity grids are the backbone of modern economies, powering critical infrastructure, homes, industries, and communication systems. In recent years, the concept of grid resilience—the grid’s ability to anticipate, absorb, adapt to, and rapidly recover from disruptive events—has gained prominence, especially in the face of climate change, cyber threats, technical failures, and sabotage (U.S. Department of Energy, 2015). For a developing nation like Nigeria, which is heavily reliant on a centralised and often fragile transmission infrastructure, the significance of grid resilience and disaster preparedness cannot be overstated.

The Nigeria National Grid, managed by the Transmission Company of Nigeria (TCN), has historically suffered from frequent collapses, with over 200 grid failures recorded between 2010 and 2022 (NERC, 2023). These grid disruptions, often triggered by natural events, equipment failure, or operational issues, highlight systemic vulnerabilities and the need for robust disaster preparedness strategies. The repercussions of these failures extend beyond power outages—they disrupt economic activities, compromise public safety, and affect national development (Adewale & Hassan, 2021).

As Nigeria faces increasing risks from climate-induced disasters such as flooding and lightning, as well as man-made risks like vandalism and cyber-attacks, it is imperative to assess how resilient the national grid is and what disaster preparedness measures are in place (Akuru & Okoro, 2014). This study seeks to critically examine the readiness of the Nigeria National Grid to withstand and recover from these events, identify gaps in current practices, and suggest frameworks for improvement.

1.2 Statement of the Problem

Despite the strategic importance of the national electricity grid, Nigeria continues to witness recurrent system collapses and prolonged blackouts. These events often occur without warning, suggesting a lack of predictive maintenance, emergency preparedness, or real-time response mechanisms. Although TCN and other stakeholders have initiated reforms, these have not adequately addressed the root causes of grid fragility. The persistent lack of resilience not only undermines energy security but also jeopardizes national stability in the face of disasters. Therefore, a comprehensive assessment of the grid’s resilience and its disaster response capacity is crucial to inform policy and infrastructure planning.

1.3 Objectives of the Study

The main objective of this study is to assess the resilience of the Nigeria National Grid and its preparedness for disasters. The specific objectives include:

To identify the major threats and vulnerabilities facing the Nigeria National Grid.

To evaluate existing grid resilience measures implemented by TCN and other stakeholders.

To assess the effectiveness of current disaster preparedness and response strategies.

To recommend best practices for enhancing grid resilience in Nigeria.

1.4 Research Questions

What are the primary vulnerabilities affecting the Nigeria National Grid?

What grid resilience measures are currently in place, and how effective are they?

How prepared is the Nigeria National Grid for natural and man-made disasters?

What strategies can be adopted to improve grid resilience and disaster response?

1.5 Scope of the Study

This study focuses on the Nigeria National Grid, specifically assessing infrastructure managed by the Transmission Company of Nigeria. It examines technical, environmental, institutional, and operational dimensions of resilience and preparedness. The temporal scope includes recent data from 2015 to 2024, reflecting both historical trends and current practices.

1.6 Significance of the Study

This study is timely and significant for several reasons. First, it contributes to the growing body of knowledge on energy systems resilience in developing countries. Second, it provides insights for policymakers, engineers, and emergency planners on how to better secure critical national infrastructure. Third, it supports the objectives of Nigeria’s Energy Transition Plan and Sustainable Development Goal 7, which targets access to reliable, sustainable, and modern energy for all (Federal Ministry of Power, 2022).

1.7 Operational Definition of Terms

Grid Resilience: The ability of the power grid to anticipate, absorb, recover from, and adapt to adverse events or disruptions.

Disaster Preparedness: The strategic planning and response capacity established in anticipation of natural or man-made disasters affecting infrastructure.

Grid Collapse: A total or partial failure of the power transmission system resulting in widespread outages.

Transmission Company of Nigeria (TCN): The government agency responsible for electric power transmission and system operation in Nigeria.

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