EXCHANGE RATE VOLATILITY AND THE NIGERIAN ECONOMY (1995-2022)

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EXCHANGE RATE VOLATILITY AND THE NIGERIAN ECONOMY (1995-2022)

ABSTRACT

This study investigates the impact of exchange rate volatility on the Nigerian economy over the period 1995 to 2022. The research explores how fluctuations in the exchange rate have influenced key macroeconomic indicators such as inflation, gross domestic product (GDP), interest rate, trade balance, and foreign direct investment (FDI). Employing both descriptive and econometric methods, particularly the GARCH model to measure volatility, and Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression to estimate relationships, the study reveals that persistent exchange rate volatility has had significant adverse effects on economic growth and macroeconomic stability in Nigeria. Findings indicate a strong correlation between exchange rate instability and inflationary trends, as well as reduced investor confidence and trade disruptions. The study recommends strengthening foreign exchange policy, enhancing monetary coordination, diversifying the economy, and building robust foreign reserve buffers to mitigate the effects of currency volatility. It concludes that a more stable exchange rate regime is crucial for achieving sustained economic growth and development in Nigeria.

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